2011 general election

Held on 26 November 2011. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
New Zealand National Party	47.3%
New Zealand Labour Party	27.5%
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	11.1%
New Zealand First	6.6%
New Conservative	2.7%
Te Pāti Māori	1.4%
Mana Movement	1.1%
ACT New Zealand	1.1%
United Future	0.6%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

Verian

2011-11-24

1.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	50.0%	47.3%	+2.7 percentage points
New Zealand First	4.2%	6.6%	-2.4 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	10.0%	11.1%	-1.1 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	1.7%	1.1%	+0.6 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	2.0%	1.4%	+0.6 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	28.0%	27.5%	+0.5 percentage points
United Future	0.1%	0.6%	-0.5 percentage points
New Conservative	2.4%	2.7%	-0.3 percentage points
Mana Movement	1.0%	1.1%	-0.1 percentage points

DigiPoll

2011-11-23

1.2 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	50.9%	47.3%	+3.6 percentage points
New Zealand First	5.2%	6.6%	-1.4 percentage points
New Conservative	1.3%	2.7%	-1.4 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	0.4%	1.4%	-1.0 percentage points
Mana Movement	0.3%	1.1%	-0.8 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	11.8%	11.1%	+0.7 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	1.8%	1.1%	+0.7 percentage points
United Future	0.0%	0.6%	-0.6 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	28.0%	27.5%	+0.5 percentage points

Reid Research

2011-11-24

1.4 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	50.8%	47.3%	+3.5 percentage points
New Zealand First	3.1%	6.6%	-3.5 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	13.4%	11.1%	+2.3 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	26.0%	27.5%	-1.5 percentage points
New Conservative	1.8%	2.7%	-0.9 percentage points
United Future	0.0%	0.6%	-0.6 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	1.0%	1.1%	-0.1 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	1.5%	1.4%	+0.1 percentage points
Mana Movement	1.1%	1.1%	0.0 percentage points

Roy Morgan

2011-11-24

1.4 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand Labour Party	23.5%	27.5%	-4.0 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	14.5%	11.1%	+3.4 percentage points
New Zealand National Party	49.5%	47.3%	+2.2 percentage points
Mana Movement	0.5%	1.1%	-0.6 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	1.5%	1.1%	+0.4 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	1.0%	1.4%	-0.4 percentage points
United Future	0.5%	0.6%	-0.1 percentage points
New Zealand First	6.5%	6.6%	-0.1 percentage points

Research International

2011-11-21

1.6 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	54.0%	47.3%	+6.7 percentage points
New Zealand First	4.0%	6.6%	-2.6 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	26.0%	27.5%	-1.5 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	12.0%	11.1%	+0.9 percentage points
United Future	0.1%	0.6%	-0.5 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	0.7%	1.1%	-0.4 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	1.1%	1.4%	-0.3 percentage points
Mana Movement	1.1%	1.1%	0.0 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.