How accurate the pollsters were
For every pollster: the average difference between its final poll and the result, how many elections that rests on, and the period those polls span.
| Pollster | Average difference | Elections | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anacta | 0.3 percentage points | 1 too few elections | 2023-09-28 – 2023-09-28 |
| Ipsos | 0.8 percentage points | 1 too few elections | 2014-09-17 – 2014-09-17 |
| DigiPoll | 0.8 percentage points | 2 too few elections | 2011-11-23 – 2014-09-17 |
| Curia | 0.9 percentage points | 1 too few elections | 2023-10-04 – 2023-10-04 |
| Verian | 1.0 percentage points | 5 | 2011-11-24 – 2023-10-10 |
| Reid Research | 1.3 percentage points | 5 | 2011-11-24 – 2023-10-10 |
| Roy Morgan | 1.5 percentage points | 5 | 2011-11-24 – 2023-10-08 |
| Research International | 1.6 percentage points | 1 too few elections | 2011-11-21 – 2011-11-21 |
| Bauer Media Insights | 1.8 percentage points | 1 too few elections | 2017-09-05 – 2017-09-05 |
| Essential Research | 2.1 percentage points | 1 too few elections | 2023-10-08 – 2023-10-08 |
| SSI | 4.1 percentage points | 1 too few elections | 2017-09-06 – 2017-09-06 |
A pollster with fewer than 3 scored elections is listed here with its figures and marked as such. Its average is shown for completeness, not as a verdict: an average over one or two elections says more about those elections than about the pollster.
Every election we hold a result for
- 2023 general election 2023-10-14
- 2020 general election 2020-10-17
- 2017 general election 2017-09-23
- 2014 general election 2014-09-20
- 2011 general election 2011-11-26
- 2008 general election 2008-11-08
- 2005 general election 2005-09-17
How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.