2014 general election

Held on 20 September 2014. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
New Zealand National Party	47.0%
New Zealand Labour Party	25.1%
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	10.7%
New Zealand First	8.7%
New Conservative	4.0%
Internet Mana	1.4%
Te Pāti Māori	1.3%
ACT New Zealand	0.7%
United Future	0.2%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

DigiPoll

2014-09-17

0.5 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	48.2%	47.0%	+1.2 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	25.9%	25.1%	+0.8 percentage points
New Conservative	3.3%	4.0%	-0.7 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	11.1%	10.7%	+0.4 percentage points
New Zealand First	8.4%	8.7%	-0.3 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	1.1%	1.3%	-0.2 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	0.5%	0.7%	-0.2 percentage points
United Future	0.2%	0.2%	0.0 percentage points

Verian

2014-09-17

0.6 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	45.0%	47.0%	-2.0 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	12.0%	10.7%	+1.3 percentage points
New Zealand First	8.0%	8.7%	-0.7 percentage points
New Conservative	4.4%	4.0%	+0.4 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	1.6%	1.3%	+0.3 percentage points
United Future	0.0%	0.2%	-0.2 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	25.0%	25.1%	-0.1 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	0.6%	0.7%	-0.1 percentage points

Roy Morgan

2014-09-14

0.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	13.5%	10.7%	+2.8 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	24.0%	25.1%	-1.1 percentage points
New Zealand First	8.0%	8.7%	-0.7 percentage points
New Zealand National Party	46.5%	47.0%	-0.5 percentage points
New Conservative	3.5%	4.0%	-0.5 percentage points
United Future	0.5%	0.2%	+0.3 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	0.5%	0.7%	-0.2 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	1.5%	1.3%	+0.2 percentage points

Ipsos

2014-09-17

0.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand First	6.6%	8.7%	-2.1 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	12.0%	10.7%	+1.3 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	26.1%	25.1%	+1.0 percentage points
New Zealand National Party	47.7%	47.0%	+0.7 percentage points
New Conservative	4.5%	4.0%	+0.5 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	0.9%	1.3%	-0.4 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	0.3%	0.7%	-0.4 percentage points
United Future	0.0%	0.2%	-0.2 percentage points

Reid Research

2014-09-15

1.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	14.4%	10.7%	+3.7 percentage points
New Zealand National Party	44.5%	47.0%	-2.5 percentage points
New Zealand First	7.1%	8.7%	-1.6 percentage points
New Conservative	4.9%	4.0%	+0.9 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	0.1%	0.7%	-0.6 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	25.6%	25.1%	+0.5 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	1.1%	1.3%	-0.2 percentage points
United Future	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.