Polls from Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan has been polling since 2008 and has published 253 polls so far; the latest was on 25 October 2026. The next election is 2026 general election on 7 November 2026, in 1 day.
Parties
| Pollster | Share (%) | Date |
|---|---|---|
| LAB | 27.5% | 2026-10-25 |
| NAT | 26.5% | 2026-10-25 |
| GRN | 15.5% | 2026-10-25 |
| ACT | 11.0% | 2026-10-25 |
| NZF | 10.0% | 2026-10-25 |
| TOP | 8.0% | 2026-10-25 |
| TPM | 1.0% | 2026-10-25 |
Coalitions
No polls available yet.
Accuracy at past elections
Average error 1.5 percentage points across 5 elections.
Systematic over- and understatement, per party
Mean signed difference between this pollster’s final poll and the result. A positive figure means the party was stated higher than it finished.
| Party | Mean difference | Elections |
|---|---|---|
| Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand | +2.8 percentage points | 5 |
| New Zealand National Party | -1.5 percentage points | 5 |
| New Zealand Labour Party | -1.2 percentage points | 5 |
| Mana Movement | -0.6 percentage points | 1 |
| ACT New Zealand | +0.5 percentage points | 5 |
| The Opportunity Party | +0.3 percentage points | 3 |
| New Zealand First | -0.1 percentage points | 5 |
| New Conservative | -0.1 percentage points | 2 |
| United Future | +0.1 percentage points | 2 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 0.0 percentage points | 5 |
Per election
| Election | Final poll | Days before | Parties scored | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 general election | 2023-10-08 | 6 | 7 | 2.5 percentage points |
| 2020 general election | 2020-09-30 | 17 | 7 | 1.2 percentage points |
| 2017 general election | 2017-09-10 | 13 | 8 | 1.6 percentage points |
| 2014 general election | 2014-09-14 | 6 | 8 | 0.8 percentage points |
| 2011 general election | 2011-11-24 | 2 | 8 | 1.4 percentage points |
How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.