2017 general election

Held on 23 September 2017. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
New Zealand National Party	44.5%
New Zealand Labour Party	36.9%
New Zealand First	7.2%
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	6.3%
The Opportunity Party	2.4%
Te Pāti Māori	1.2%
ACT New Zealand	0.5%
New Conservative	0.2%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

Reid Research

2017-09-20

0.7 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
The Opportunity Party	0.9%	2.4%	-1.5 percentage points
New Zealand National Party	45.8%	44.5%	+1.4 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	7.1%	6.3%	+0.8 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	0.4%	1.2%	-0.8 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	37.3%	36.9%	+0.4 percentage points
New Conservative	0.6%	0.2%	+0.4 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	0.6%	0.5%	+0.1 percentage points
New Zealand First	7.1%	7.2%	-0.1 percentage points

Verian

2017-09-19

1.0 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand First	4.9%	7.2%	-2.3 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	8.0%	6.3%	+1.7 percentage points
New Zealand National Party	46.0%	44.5%	+1.6 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	0.5%	1.2%	-0.7 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	0.3%	0.5%	-0.2 percentage points
The Opportunity Party	2.3%	2.4%	-0.1 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	37.0%	36.9%	+0.1 percentage points

Roy Morgan

2017-09-10

1.6 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	40.0%	44.5%	-4.5 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	9.0%	6.3%	+2.7 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	39.5%	36.9%	+2.6 percentage points
New Zealand First	6.0%	7.2%	-1.2 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	2.0%	1.2%	+0.8 percentage points
The Opportunity Party	2.0%	2.4%	-0.4 percentage points
New Conservative	0.5%	0.2%	+0.3 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	0.5%	0.5%	0.0 percentage points

Bauer Media Insights

2017-09-05

1.8 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	38.9%	44.5%	-5.6 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	41.1%	36.9%	+4.2 percentage points
New Zealand First	8.9%	7.2%	+1.7 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	1.1%	0.5%	+0.6 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	6.7%	6.3%	+0.4 percentage points
The Opportunity Party	2.2%	2.4%	-0.2 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	1.1%	1.2%	-0.1 percentage points

SSI

2017-09-06

4.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	30.0%	44.5%	-14.5 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	45.0%	36.9%	+8.1 percentage points
New Zealand First	11.0%	7.2%	+3.8 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	2.0%	1.2%	+0.8 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	1.0%	0.5%	+0.5 percentage points
The Opportunity Party	2.0%	2.4%	-0.4 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	6.0%	6.3%	-0.3 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.