Held on 17 October 2020. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.
How the final polls compared
Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.
| Pollster |
Final poll |
Days before |
Parties scored |
Difference |
| Roy Morgan |
2020-09-30 |
17 |
7 |
1.2 percentage points |
| Party |
Poll |
Result |
Difference |
| New Zealand National Party |
28.5% |
25.6% |
+2.9 percentage points |
| New Zealand Labour Party |
47.5% |
50.0% |
-2.5 percentage points |
| Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand |
9.5% |
7.9% |
+1.6 percentage points |
| Te Pāti Māori |
0.5% |
1.2% |
-0.7 percentage points |
| ACT New Zealand |
7.0% |
7.6% |
-0.6 percentage points |
| New Zealand First |
2.5% |
2.6% |
-0.1 percentage points |
| The Opportunity Party |
1.5% |
1.5% |
0.0 percentage points |
|
| Verian |
2020-10-14 |
3 |
8 |
1.4 percentage points |
| Party |
Poll |
Result |
Difference |
| New Zealand National Party |
31.0% |
25.6% |
+5.4 percentage points |
| New Zealand Labour Party |
46.0% |
50.0% |
-4.0 percentage points |
| Te Pāti Māori |
0.6% |
1.2% |
-0.6 percentage points |
| ACT New Zealand |
8.0% |
7.6% |
+0.4 percentage points |
| The Opportunity Party |
1.1% |
1.5% |
-0.4 percentage points |
| Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand |
8.0% |
7.9% |
+0.1 percentage points |
| New Conservative |
1.5% |
1.5% |
0.0 percentage points |
| New Zealand First |
2.6% |
2.6% |
0.0 percentage points |
|
| Reid Research |
2020-10-15 |
2 |
8 |
1.7 percentage points |
| Party |
Poll |
Result |
Difference |
| New Zealand National Party |
31.1% |
25.6% |
+5.5 percentage points |
| New Zealand Labour Party |
45.8% |
50.0% |
-4.2 percentage points |
| Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand |
6.3% |
7.9% |
-1.6 percentage points |
| New Zealand First |
3.5% |
2.6% |
+0.9 percentage points |
| Te Pāti Māori |
0.6% |
1.2% |
-0.6 percentage points |
| New Conservative |
1.7% |
1.5% |
+0.2 percentage points |
| The Opportunity Party |
1.3% |
1.5% |
-0.2 percentage points |
| ACT New Zealand |
7.4% |
7.6% |
-0.2 percentage points |
|
How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.