2023 general election

Held on 14 October 2023. The result below is the official outcome; underneath it, where we hold the polls, is how close each pollster’s final poll came.

Result

Party	Share (%)
New Zealand National Party	38.1%
New Zealand Labour Party	26.9%
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	11.6%
ACT New Zealand	8.6%
New Zealand First	6.1%
Te Pāti Māori	3.1%
The Opportunity Party	2.2%
New Conservative	0.2%

How the final polls compared

Each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before this election, and how far it was from the result. Only parties the pollster reported are counted.

Pollster

Final poll

Days before

Parties scored

Difference

Anacta

2023-09-28

0.3 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	13.0%	11.6%	+1.4 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	9.0%	8.6%	+0.4 percentage points
New Zealand First	6.4%	6.1%	+0.3 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	27.0%	26.9%	+0.1 percentage points
The Opportunity Party	2.3%	2.2%	+0.1 percentage points
New Zealand National Party	38.0%	38.1%	-0.1 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	3.1%	3.1%	0.0 percentage points

Curia

2023-10-04

0.9 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	35.9%	38.1%	-2.2 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	10.6%	11.6%	-1.0 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	27.9%	26.9%	+1.0 percentage points
New Zealand First	6.9%	6.1%	+0.8 percentage points
The Opportunity Party	2.9%	2.2%	+0.7 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	3.7%	3.1%	+0.6 percentage points
New Conservative	0.7%	0.2%	+0.5 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	9.1%	8.6%	+0.5 percentage points

Verian

2023-10-10

0.9 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	14.0%	11.6%	+2.4 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	1.7%	3.1%	-1.4 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	28.0%	26.9%	+1.1 percentage points
New Zealand National Party	37.0%	38.1%	-1.1 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	9.0%	8.6%	+0.4 percentage points
New Zealand First	6.0%	6.1%	-0.1 percentage points
The Opportunity Party	2.3%	2.2%	+0.1 percentage points

Reid Research

2023-10-10

1.2 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	34.5%	38.1%	-3.6 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	14.9%	11.6%	+3.3 percentage points
New Zealand First	6.8%	6.1%	+0.7 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	27.5%	26.9%	+0.6 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	2.7%	3.1%	-0.4 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	8.8%	8.6%	+0.2 percentage points
The Opportunity Party	2.2%	2.2%	0.0 percentage points

Essential Research

2023-10-08

2.1 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	34.0%	38.1%	-4.1 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	30.3%	26.9%	+3.4 percentage points
New Zealand First	8.2%	6.1%	+2.1 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	1.9%	3.1%	-1.2 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	10.6%	11.6%	-1.0 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	7.9%	8.6%	-0.7 percentage points

Roy Morgan

2023-10-08

2.5 percentage points

Party	Poll	Result	Difference
New Zealand National Party	30.5%	38.1%	-7.6 percentage points
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand	15.0%	11.6%	+3.4 percentage points
ACT New Zealand	11.5%	8.6%	+2.9 percentage points
New Zealand First	7.5%	6.1%	+1.4 percentage points
The Opportunity Party	3.5%	2.2%	+1.3 percentage points
New Zealand Labour Party	26.0%	26.9%	-0.9 percentage points
Te Pāti Māori	3.0%	3.1%	-0.1 percentage points

How this is measured: for each past election we take each pollster’s last poll in the 30 days before polling day and compare it, party by party, with the result. The figure is the mean absolute difference across the parties that appear in both. Only parties the pollster actually reported are counted. A late shift in opinion is not the same thing as a polling error.